House Republicans are coming to terms with the fact they could lose their majority next week and be launched into a nasty leadership race.
Speaker Mike Johnson recently signaled he could stay on as GOP leader in the minority. But interviews with three dozen GOP lawmakers and senior Republican aides reveal most are skeptical Johnson runs in that scenario. They’re keeping a close eye on two potential alternatives: Jim Jordan and Steve Scalise.
The two men are being careful not to acknowledge any jockeying in the final lead-up to the midterms, but many Republicans expect the contest to explode into plain view after Tuesday. Candidates only have until Nov. 6 to declare their intentions to run in the Nov. 10 GOP leader elections.
Scalise, after spending nearly eight years as the No. 2 House Republican, has raised scads of money and built back-slapping relationships with a broad cross-section of members.
But he is facing a squeeze if Dems win the majority: Rep. Tom Emmer intends to run for the party whip regardless of the outcome, which is the No. 2 spot in the minority. If Johnson were to try to stay on in that scenario, Scalise would be forced into a contested race to either move up or keep his rung on the GOP power ladder.
Scalise said in an interview that “anybody who’s measuring the drapes of the minority leader’s office is not focused on the right things.”
The math for a potential minority leader bid runs in Jordan’s favor: He needed near-unanimity to win a race for speaker — which he lost in 2023. But elections for minority leader involve Republicans voting among themselves, and the Ohio Republican has made conspicuous moves to build support with different factions of the party.
In an interview from the campaign trail in Myrtle Beach, South Carolina, Jordan said he’s “helping anybody, everybody,” and encouraging the GOP to “stick together.”
While Jordan and Scalise are being most closely watched for the No. 1 post, some believe Emmer could emerge as a candidate if others fail, as could Texas Rep. August Pfluger. Many will also be keeping eyes on President Donald Trump, who has yet to weigh in on the post-election GOP leadership picture.
Still, many, though not all, predict that a Republican midterm wipeout could leave members reluctant to elevate a member of the existing leadership structure and instead choose a known face of the conservative insurgency.
“It’s Jordan’s race to lose,” said a House Republican granted anonymity to speak candidly about the as-yet-unofficial race. “I think it’s his time.”
What else we’re watching:
— TRUMP’S RUSSIA EMBRACE FALLOUT: Trump may have finally alienated the faction key to delivering his colossal defense budget: Republican hawks. The president — relying on the reconciliation process — will need almost unanimous support from Senate and House Republicans to enact his $1.5 trillion Pentagon budget after the midterm elections, especially if the GOP is about to lose one or both chambers of Congress. But Trump’s recent receptiveness to Russia has alarmed the very people pushing for more military spending. And they warn that his agenda won’t survive if the embrace of Moscow continues.
— OIL STATE DEMOCRAT REVIVAL? Next week’s midterm elections could usher in the revival of a rare type of politician: Democratic senators representing states rich in fossil fuels — and Republicans. Moderate Democrats view potential wins from Senate candidates like James Talarico of Texas and Mary Peltola of Alaska as a way to broaden the party’s tent on energy issues heading into what’s expected to be a competitive 2028 election cycle. It could also challenge the sway environmental groups have had with the party in recent decades.
Mia McCarthy, Meredith Lee Hill, Connor O’Brien, Mark Satter and Pavan Acharya contributed to this report.
